Structural Logic
Daily Commentary - SP 500
10/30/2002
BIG PICTURE 2002	SPZ 8150
FRIDAY OCTOBER 11TH GAPPED OPEN HIGHER ATOP THE 3RD
QUARTER CLOSE AT 815.00. THAT IS A SIGNAL DAY.
AS LONG AS TRADE REMAINS ABOVE 815.00 IN THE 4TH QTR	2900-2950 OCT 1998 LOW
NOW, THE 3RD QUARTER HIGHS AT 995.80 WILL BE CHALLENGED	1750-1800 ** 1998 YR LOW
AND LIKELY EXCEEDED IN THE 4TH QUARTER.	0500-0550 last wk highs
	9850-9950 WC
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY TRADE UNDER THE SEPT CLOSE	8680-8700 consumer conf hi
IF OCT 11TH  IS A VALID SIGNAL DAY.  IN WHICH CASE,  A 34-35% RALLY
WOUD BE ANTICIPATED FROM THE OCTOBER 10TH 2002 LOW.	***7800-7850 last wk open
PUT ANOTHER WAY, THE INITIAL HIGH SHOULD BE 5-7% ABOVE
THE AUGUST HI AT 966.00. EITHER WAY, THE 4TH QTR TARGETS	7250-7300 last wk lows
1014-1035 minimum.	6950 Sept 5 & Jul 29 low
	5550-5700 oct 16 low
10/28/2002 WEEKLY PICTURE	4400-4500 oct 28 97 low
KEY OFF THE AUGUST 29TH LOW AT 902.80.  ABOVE IT THE BULLS
CAN CHALLENGE THE SEPT HGIHS AT 926.90 AND THE 3RD QUARTER
HIGHS AT 966.00.  BELOW 902.00, THE INDEX CAN BACK AND FILL.
DAILY PICTURE
THE 900 AM HIGH OF YD WAS 8680, I.E. THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
HIGH. THE AFTERNOON HIGH WAS ALSO 8680.
THIS MAKES FOR A PRETTY GOOD SWING POINT.
BELOW THE OPEN AND BELOW 8680-8700, THE SPOOS REMAIN IN THE
THROES OF THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WOES TARGETING
THE OPENING OF LAST WEEK AT 7800-7850 AND THE LOWER
EXTREMES OF LAST WEEK AT 7250-7300. IDEALLY IT WILL BE TOUCH
AND GO FROM HERE IF THE MARKET IS SET FOR HIGHER.  ONLY A
FAILURE OF THE SEPT 5TH AND JULY 29TH LOWS AT
6950 SUGGESTS NEW MOVE LOWS ON THE WEEK ARE COMING THAT
TARGETS THE OCT 16TH LOWS AT 5550-5700.
ABOVE THE OPEN AND ABOVE 8700, THE EFFECTS OF YD'S
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE NUMBER BEGINS TO WANE, AND A
SUSTAINED TRADE ABOVE 8700 SUGGESTS A RETURN MOVE TO THE
LAST WEEKS CLOSE AT 9850-9950 AND LAST WEEKS HIGHS AT
0500-0550. THE EXTENDED TARGETS ARE 1750 AND 2950,
AND ARE NOT QUITE ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY.